Açıqlama:

Our assessment is that the immediate terrorist effects Iraq has generated are not as dramatic as commonly supposed but that the long-term effects have yet to be determined. In years to come, training and tactical development in Iraq will likely be one of several factors contributing toward the growth of terrorist movements, the others being determined primarily by domestic circumstances. One of the most significant is what can best be termed a sense of Iraq fatigue among neighboring states the belief that, while the conflict and Iranian influence in Iraq are certainly alarming, they have been superseded by more-pressing “local” concerns, particularly in the Levant. Threat perceptions of Iran also vary significantly, both across different subregions and countries and between governments and their publics. Taken in sum, these dynamics present both challenges and opportunities for U.S. regional policy. Understanding gaps between U.S. and regional views of the conflict’s consequences and implications will therefore be paramount particularly for gauging the willingness of neighboring states to cooperate on U.S. objectives. Similarly, the United States must be attentive to how the post-Iraq environment, especially altered views of U.S. power and credibility, have opened up possibilities for new paradigms of regional security cooperation, involving traditional Middle East allies but also extra regional states, such as Russia or China.